UAAP S74 Finals Analysis

            All the battles have been fought and games decided by blowouts or last second heaves, Season 74 of your UAAP has been one of the most exciting in recent memory. The influx of talented rookies, solid foreigners, and the competitive spirit of college basketball, have turned the UAAP into the basketball hoopla of the country and has overtaken the slow progressing Philippine Basketball Association, in terms of popularity. 

            As the elimination round and the exciting Final Four closed, two teams remain and have the right to fight and to be crowned this season’s champions and they are the three-peat defending champions Ateneo Blue Eagles and last season’s runners-up Far Eastern University Tamaraws.

            Let us breakdown the key points for both teams and put them head-to-head and see who has the edge.

FAR EASTERN UNIVERSITY TAMARAWS

Keys For Success:

Defense

 FEU’s defense should be able to dictate on how Ateneo will play the game. The big dilemma that FEU Head Coach Bert Flores has is which option to give Ateneo. Will he choose to let Greg Slaughter and his inside presence dominate the game or will he let the slashing and shooting ability of the other players of Ateneo such as Kiefer Ravena and Nico Salva beat him? Personally, Slaughter dictates the tempo of the game. When only one man defends him, he can easily score at will but when he sees the double team, he knows when and how to dish it to his open teammates. Slaughter has been playing poorly as of late and FEU should capitalize on that. They should throw changing defenses at him and keep him guessing.  

The Dynamic Duo

 Last season’s Rookie of the Year Terrence Romeo and last season’s MVP RR Garcia should launch an all out scoring barrage against the Blue Eagles. Although Ateneo has been the league’s best defensive team, it would be tough to defeat the Tamaraws if both Garcia and Romeo have good games. Both players can dictate the tempo of the game by either scoring at will or dishing it off to open teammates. The bad part about relying on RR and Romeo is that both take too many shots, or in basketball terms volume shooters, so they should be able to decide on when to take the shots or when to pass them.

Revenge

FEU has consistently posted Top 2 records in the elimination round but come the Final 4, they become a totally different team. Last season, Ateneo completely annihilated them and stamping their class en route to a three-peat. Can FEU use their shortcomings as fuel for their first championship ever since the Arwind Santos era or will they continue to feel the pressure and choke under these circumstances?

OTHER NOTES:

Chemistry

Will the likes of JR Cawaling, Pipo Noundou, and Christian Sentchu be able to play for the Tamaraws? If they do so, the Tamaraws are faced with a big dilemma. Will they allow 3 of their key players to suit up and disrupt the rotation and chemistry the team has built during their absence or will Coach Bert opt to use the players that got him to this moment in the Finals?

Starting 5

Will Coach Bert Flores decide to start with 2 guards and 3 bigs or 3 guards and 2 bigs? Ateneo has had a history of match-up problems, especially against Adamson, when their opponents go big. The main concern of FEU is that they have a lot of talented guards but will they match Ateneo man for man or go big and play a defensive game? In my opinion, FEU should go and try to defend Ateneo because no team can out-gun the Blue Eagles especially in championship games such as these. It is better for them to keep the game close rather than let the Blue Eagles run away at the start.

ATENEO BLUE EAGLES

Keys For Success:

Give the ball to Greg

Most championship teams build around a solid big man down low and Ateneo has that in Greg Slaughter. When Slaughter has the ball down low, everyone is watching his every move. He can either go up for that seemingly unblockable hook shot of his, turn around and shoot over his opponent, or dribble the ball and go up strong. Slaughter causes many match-up problems because he draws so much attention on offense. If Ateneo is able to make a consistent effort in feeding the ball to him, it almost guarantees them a victory. Slaughter is also able to kick the ball out once he sees double team and Ateneo should make FEU pay.

Bench Play

Ateneo’s bench this seasonhas been inconsistent. To me, this second unit lacks a scoring threat but makes up for it through defense. The key of the series will be if Ateneo’s bench can sustain the lead its starters made. Justin Chua should step-up big time just as he did all of last season and be the main man in the second unit. We’ll see if Tonito Gonzaga, arguably the most improved player on the Ateneo side, can continue his torrid shooting ways and defend the opponent’s best scoring threat.

Go 4 Glory

Does Ateneo still have the determination and drive to go for a rare 4-peat? I believe they do. Being the best team in the elimination round, they have showed that they still have heart and what it takes to bring back another championship to Loyola Heights. Amidst times of struggle, this is where they will dig deep and fight for what they believe is their championship.

Now that we have talked about both team’s keys for victory, let us put them head-to-head and from there, let us predict on who will bring the bacon.

Starters:

Both team’s starting units are topnotch. Both of them can score at any given moment and both teams possess offensive threats that they can go to. FEU will dictate on the game based on the starting unit. It is either they play 2 guards to create defensive mismatches on the other end or will they decide to place 3 guards and match Ateneo’s scoring prowess? Nevertheless, Ateneo’s starting unit boasts a great offensive-defensive line-up which can match any teams.

Slight Advantage: Ateneo

Guard Play:

FEU is a guard-oriented team led by last season’s MVP, RR Garcia. The Tamaraws have Terrence Romeo, Ping Exciminiano, Mike Tolomia, Jens Knuttel, and Roger Pugoy in the mix and any one of them can score in any given moment. For Ateneo, they have this season’s Rookie of the Year in Kiefer Ravena, Emman Monfort, Juami Tiongson, Kirk Long, Tonito Gonzaga, and Von Pessumal. FEU’s guards are more offensive minded and can easily take over the game while Ateneo has a steady scorer in Ravena but more defensive guards on their team.

Advantage: FEU

Big Men:

The 3-time defending champions can field in the likes of Greg Slaughter, Nico Salva, Bacon Austria, Justin Chua, Frank Golla, JP Erram, and Oping Sumalinog. For FEU, they have Aldrech Ramos, Russell Escoto, Carl Bryan Cruz, John Foronda, JR Cawaling*, Pipo Noundou*, and Christian Sentchu*. Ateneo has a big advantage down low because they are the taller team and second, FEU is hurt big time. Ateneo’s big men are more offensive minded compared to the defensive mindset the Tamaraws bigs have.

Advantage: Ateneo

Bench Play:

To me both benches are polar opposites. FEU’s bench often provides offensive firepower but on the contrary, Ateneo’s bench is a more defensive minded unit. When the game or championship is hanging on the balance, which bench prevails?

Advantage: Even

Coaching:

Both coaches from both teams are great coaches. Coach Norman Black has won 10 PBA Titles in the PBA including a rare grand slam plus his 3 UAAP championships. On the other hand, Bert Flores steered FEU to its last championship in 2005. Not taking anything away from Coach Bert, Coach Norman is a true preacher of the game. He has won in all levels and he is able to motivate players excellently and even with all the championships, they still remain hardworkers and continue to play their brand of basketball.

Advantage: Ateneo

Defense:

Ateneo is the league’s best defensive team but FEU has pushed all the right buttons if defeating the Adamson Falcons in the Final Four, twice, considering that Adamson is one of the best teams, if not the best UAAP team in executing in the halfcourt. Defense can’t be judged on a series of games but its how you play the whole season and Ateneo has done that which led them to the best record in the season.

Advantage: Ateneo

Championship Experience:

No questions asked.

Advantage: Ateneo

Heart and Desire:

It all boils down to which team wants it more. Numbers and statistics are all forgotten in games such as these. It’s your heart and determination that makes you prevail in championship games. The game of basketball is played with many dependent variables but the only constant variable in the game is how much effort you give.

Advantage: To be decided by the winner of the series. (EVEN)

Prediction:

            From the many things I’ve written and explained above, it looks like the Blue Eagles are going to win their fourth championship in a row but not without a fight. FEU is playing with everything to lose since it will lose many key players next year due to graduation. I expect an exciting championship game showcasing both teams’ strengths. Ateneo will win Game 1 because of their championship experience but FEU will come back and steal Game 2. In the all important and deciding Game 3, both teams will give a good fight but Ateneo will prevail. The Finals MVP will be a toss-up between Greg Slaughter and the Phenom, Kiefer Ravena. 

Photo Credits: fabilioh.com and uaapsports.com